Jeju United FC 2-2 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Jeju United FC take on Seongnam FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC meet at Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 May 2021 at 06:00 UTC.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Jeju United FC, 0 for Seongnam FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 0.98 xG and Seongnam FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 1.007 / defence 1.302 | Seongnam FC attack 0.675 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 0.954 / away 1.140. Data: 17 Jeju United FC games / 13 Seongnam FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 31% | Draw 37% | Seongnam FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 3.23 | Draw 2.70 | Seongnam FC 3.12. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2021, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 31% | Draw 37% | Seongnam FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 43% | xG Jeju United FC 0.98 / Seongnam FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 1.007 / def 1.302 | Seongnam FC attack 0.675 / def 1.022 | league avg home 0.954 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Seongnam FC xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 22 May 2021 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC?
Jeju United FC 2 - 2 Seongnam FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 31% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 32% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC?
Record (1 meetings): Jeju United FC 0W | Draws 1 | Seongnam FC 0W.
What form are Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jeju United FC's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Seongnam FC's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — Seongnam FC's attack (0.68x) against Jeju United FC's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 17/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.23
37%
2.71
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
1.98
1.00
Seongnam FC xG
3.23
31%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
12%
8.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.00 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Pre-Season
Seongnam FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since March 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Seongnam FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Jeju United FC
2
Draws
1
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 3, Seongnam FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2022, when Jeju United FC 1-2 Seongnam FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC finished level at 2-2 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 0.98 xG and Seongnam FC 1.00 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Jeju United FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Seongnam FC outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.30 against Seongnam FC attack 0.68 / defence 1.02, drawn from 17/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 31% | Draw 37% | Seongnam FC 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.