FC Seoul 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Seoul World Cup Stadium plays host to FC Seoul versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Relegation Round - 3. Kick-off: Wednesday 12 October 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
FC Seoul (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Seoul World Cup Stadium, FC Seoul have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for FC Seoul, 1.00 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Seoul have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
FC Seoul — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 54% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 43% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.18 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 0.916 / defence 1.026 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.884 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.241. Data: 66 FC Seoul games / 33 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 37% | Draw 28% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 35%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Seoul are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Seoul if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: FC Seoul 60% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 Oct 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 37% | Draw 28% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG FC Seoul 1.18 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 0.916 / def 1.026 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.884 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 12 October 2022 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
FC Seoul 1 - 1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 37% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Seoul's attack rating (0.92) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack (0.88x) against FC Seoul's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 66/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
37%
2.69
28%
3.53
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.30
1.12
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.2 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for FC Seoul and 1.12 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, FC Seoul have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 10W 12D 13L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 8W 12D 15L from 35 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for FC Seoul against 1.03 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Seoul have posted 1.29 PPG from 17 outings (6W 4D 7L).
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 3W 7D 7L from 17 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Seoul are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.20 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 35 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 10W 12D 13L in their last 35 games (1.20 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 8W 12D 15L in their last 35 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
FC Seoul's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.29 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Seoul won 5-1 on 3 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Seoul have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Seoul
3
Draws
3
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 4, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-0 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Seoul see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 59%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Seoul) and 53% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Seoul play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of FC Seoul's games and 59% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of FC Seoul's recent games and 53% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
FC Seoul have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Relegation Round - 3, as FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.18 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 0.92 / defence 1.03 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.92, drawn from 66/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 37% | Draw 28% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 35%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 43%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.20 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.