Daejeon Citizen 0-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Daejeon Citizen face Ulsan Hyundai FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Daejeon Citizen host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Daejeon World Cup Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 2). Kick-off is Sunday 23 February 2025 at 05:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Daejeon Citizen — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Daejeon Citizen have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Ulsan Hyundai FC have recorded 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Daejeon Citizen) versus 2.40 (Ulsan Hyundai FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Daejeon Citizen, 2 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2024, ended Daejeon Citizen 0–1 Ulsan Hyundai FC — a Ulsan Hyundai FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Daejeon Citizen trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daejeon Citizen 60% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daejeon Citizen 49% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Daejeon Citizen surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Ulsan Hyundai FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 1.22 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.938 / defence 0.947 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.946 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.242. Data: built from Daejeon Citizen's last 34 games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 34. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 2.59 | Draw 3.56 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.01. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Daejeon Citizen's last 10 home games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Daejeon Citizen 50% (last 10 home games) | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Daejeon Citizen 34 games, Ulsan Hyundai FC 34) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 2 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 February 2025 at 05:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Daejeon Citizen 1.22 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.938 / def 0.947 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.946 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC FAQs
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 05:00 UK time on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Daejeon Citizen 0 - 2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 2) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 39% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Daejeon Citizen's attack rating (0.94) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Daejeon Citizen's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Daejeon Citizen's last 34 games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 34, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
39%
2.59
28%
3.56
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.33
1.11
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
10%
10.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.11 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Daejeon Citizen's recent record stands at 24W 27D 25L from 76 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 44W 16D 16L across 76 games — 1.95 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Daejeon Citizen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Daejeon Citizen have managed 16W 11D 11L from their last 38 home games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record stands at 17W 9D 12L across their last 38 away games, a 1.58 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.64 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Daejeon Citizen (Home) vs Ulsan Hyundai FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Form FAQs
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 24W 27D 25L in their last 76 games (1.30 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 44W 16D 16L in their last 76 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daejeon Citizen at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daejeon Citizen at home: 1.55 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Daejeon Citizen or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daejeon Citizen have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 26 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 May 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won Ulsan Hyundai FC 4-1 Daejeon Citizen.
Daejeon Citizen's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Daejeon Citizen
2
Draws
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Daejeon Citizen have won 5, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 August 2026: Daejeon Citizen 2-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daejeon Citizen 53%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Daejeon Citizen) and 42% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 34%; Daejeon Citizen have failed to score in 29% of games; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Daejeon Citizen's recent matches and 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Daejeon Citizen's recent games and 42% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Daejeon Citizen's recent matches and 50% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Daejeon Citizen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Daejeon Citizen 0-2 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.22 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.11 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.94 / defence 0.95 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.95 / defence 0.93, drawn from 34/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 33%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Ulsan Hyundai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 49%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.