Daegu FC 1-1 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 1 as Daegu FC welcome Suwon City FC to DGB Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 February 2021 at 07:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.39 xG and Suwon City FC 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Suwon City FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.050. Data: 0 Daegu FC games / 0 Suwon City FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 41% | Draw 35% | Suwon City FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | Suwon City FC 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: DGB Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 41% | Draw 35% | Suwon City FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG Daegu FC 1.39 / Suwon City FC 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Suwon City FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Suwon City FC xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 27 February 2021 at DGB Arena.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Daegu FC 1 - 1 Suwon City FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Arena.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 41% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 24% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Daegu FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Daegu FC's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Suwon City FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
41%
2.42
35%
2.88
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.41
1.03
Suwon City FC xG
2.42
41%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
6%
16.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.03 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Pre-Season
Suwon City FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Daegu FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
5
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Daegu FC and Suwon City FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at DGB Arena, Regular Season - 1, as Daegu FC and Suwon City FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.39 xG and Suwon City FC 1.03 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Suwon City FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 41% | Draw 35% | Suwon City FC 24%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.