Damac 1-3 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium plays host to Damac versus Al Shabab in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Damac (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Shabab's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al Shabab are 0.50 PPG clear of Damac in recent Pro League fixtures (1.10 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Al Shabab hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Al Shabab have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Damac goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 56% versus Al Shabab 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 49% | Al Shabab 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 0.98 xG and Al Shabab 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.744 / defence 0.853 | Al Shabab attack 0.755 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.355. Damac's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Damac games / 55 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 36% | Draw 34% | Al Shabab 30%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Al Shabab 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Shabab (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Damac 70% | Al Shabab 30%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 36% | Draw 34% | Al Shabab 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Damac 0.98 / Al Shabab 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.744 / def 0.853 | Al Shabab attack 0.755 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Damac (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Damac xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Al Shabab xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al Shabab kick off?
Damac vs Al Shabab kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 February 2026 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Shabab?
Damac 1 - 3 Al Shabab.
Where is Damac vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Shabab part of?
Damac vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 36% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Damac and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Shabab?
Record (9 meetings): Damac 1W | Draws 3 | Al Shabab 5W.
What form are Damac and Al Shabab in?
Damac (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Al Shabab (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Damac's attack rating (0.74) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (0.76x) against Damac's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
36%
2.78
34%
2.97
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Damac xG
Total xG
1.85
0.87
Al Shabab xG
2.78
36%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
11%
8.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 13.7 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Damac and 0.87 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Damac come into this having played 55 games, going 11W 17D 27L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.44 PPG from 55 outings (22W 13D 20L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Damac — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Damac's home form reads 7W 9D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.19 points per game from 27 outings (8W 8D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Damac are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.56 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 11W 17D 27L in their last 55 games (0.91 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 22W 13D 20L in their last 55 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Shabab's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.11 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 1-4 on 31 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Damac
3
Draws
6
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 1, Al Shabab have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Damac 1-3 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 59%, Al Shabab 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Damac) and 48% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Damac have failed to score in 30% of games; Al Shabab in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Damac's games and 52% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Damac vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Damac's recent games and 48% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Shabab cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Damac 1-3 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 0.98 xG and Al Shabab 0.87 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Shabab outscored their 0.87 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.74 / defence 0.85 against Al Shabab attack 0.76 / defence 0.89, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 36% | Draw 34% | Al Shabab 30%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Al Shabab win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 49%, Al Shabab 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al Shabab's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. Damac (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.