Damac 2-1 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Damac face Al Kholood.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al Kholood travel to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to take on Damac in Pro League (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 13:40 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Damac stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Damac have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Al Kholood — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Kholood's away record over their last 5 away games: 1W 2D 2L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Damac 1.10 PPG, Al Kholood 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Damac in-play tendencies (last 10 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
Al Kholood in-play tendencies (last 10 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Damac 70% and Al Kholood 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 70% | Al Kholood 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.56 xG and Al Kholood 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 1.083 / defence 1.021 | Al Kholood attack 0.754 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.261. Al Kholood's attack rating of 0.754 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Data: built from Damac's last 44 games and Al Kholood's last 10.
Result probabilities: Damac 51% | Draw 25% | Al Kholood 24%. Fair-value odds: Damac 1.96 | Draw 3.94 | Al Kholood 4.25. Damac hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Damac's last 10 home games and Al Kholood's last 5 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Damac 50% (last 10 home games) | Al Kholood 60% (last 5 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, matchday 11 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 November 2024 at 13:40 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 51% | Draw 25% | Al Kholood 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Damac 1.56 / Al Kholood 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 1.083 / def 1.021 | Al Kholood attack 0.754 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Damac (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Damac xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Al Kholood xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Damac vs Al Kholood FAQs
What time does Damac vs Al Kholood kick off?
Damac vs Al Kholood kicked off at 13:40 UK time on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Kholood?
Damac 2 - 1 Al Kholood.
Where is Damac vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Kholood part of?
Damac vs Al Kholood is a Pro League fixture (matchday 11) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 51% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Damac and Al Kholood will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Damac vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Damac's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Al Kholood's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Al Kholood's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Damac's last 44 games and Al Kholood's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
51%
1.96
25%
3.94
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Damac xG
Total xG
2.53
0.97
Al Kholood xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
5%
20.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.1 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Damac vs Al Kholood Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Damac and 0.97 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Kholood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Damac's recent record stands at 3W 2D 5L from 10 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Al Kholood, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 5L across 10 games — 0.70 PPG, with L-D-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Damac by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Kholood heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Damac have managed 2W 2D 1L from their last 5 home games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Damac are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al Kholood's away record stands at 1W 2D 2L across their last 5 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Damac are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.20 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Damac have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Al Kholood in 60%.
Last 10 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al Kholood
Blended
Damac (Home) vs Al Kholood (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Damac
Blended
Al Kholood
Blended
❓ Damac vs Al Kholood Form FAQs
What form are Damac and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Kholood away?
Damac's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.60 PPG; Al Kholood away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 3 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Damac's record when hosting Al Kholood specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Damac
1
Draws
1
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Damac vs Al Kholood H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Kholood?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Damac have won 2, Al Kholood have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Kholood last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 February 2026: Damac 0-0 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Kholood?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 60%, Al Kholood 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Damac) and 20% (Al Kholood).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Damac vs Al Kholood Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Damac and Al Kholood matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Damac's games and 60% of Al Kholood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Damac and Al Kholood matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Damac's recent games and 20% of Al Kholood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al Kholood matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Damac's recent matches and 60% of Al Kholood's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Damac edge out Al Kholood 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al Kholood 2-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.56 xG and Al Kholood 0.97 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 1.08 / defence 1.02 against Al Kholood attack 0.75 / defence 0.98, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 51% | Draw 25% | Al Kholood 24%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 70%, Al Kholood 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Al Kholood's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Kholood (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.