Damac 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 33% as Damac take on Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium plays host to Damac versus Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 17 October 2021 at 16:25 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Damac have collected 2.00 PPG across 7 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 1L. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.57 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Damac have posted 2W 1D 0L at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium — 2.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
Al-Ittihad FC's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 1D 1L from 7 games (2.29 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.43 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.71 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Damac against 2.29 for Al-Ittihad FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 57% versus Al-Ittihad FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 29% | Al-Ittihad FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.18 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.994 / defence 0.957 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.045 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.144 / away 1.178. Data: 7 Damac games / 7 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 33% | Draw 33% | Al-Ittihad FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Damac 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Ittihad FC 3.03. The draw (33%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 33% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Damac 33% | Al-Ittihad FC 67%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 16:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 33% | Draw 33% | Al-Ittihad FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Damac 1.18 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.994 / def 0.957 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.045 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.144 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Draw (33%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Al-Ittihad FC xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 16:25 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Damac 1 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 33% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Damac and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Ittihad FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Damac and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Damac (all comps): 4W-2D-1L in 7 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-1D-1L in 7 | 2.29 PPG | GF 2.43 / GA 0.71 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Damac's attack rating (0.99) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.04x) against Damac's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.00
33%
2.99
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Damac xG
Total xG
2.36
1.18
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.00
33%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
10%
9.74
10%
9.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Damac and 1.18 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 33%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Damac's recent record stands at 4W 2D 1L from 7 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 1L across 7 games — 2.29 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Damac against 2.29 for Al-Ittihad FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Damac have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 2W 0D 1L across 3 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Damac are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.43 scored and 0.71 conceded. Al-Ittihad FC's attacking output running into Damac's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Damac have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Early Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 5W 1D 1L in their last 7 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Damac's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 2.33 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 on 4 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Damac
3
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 2, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Damac see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 33%, Al-Ittihad FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Damac and 67% for Al-Ittihad FC.
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Damac's recent matches and 67% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Damac's recent games and 67% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac and Al-Ittihad FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac and Al-Ittihad FC finished level at 1-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.18 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.18 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.99 / defence 0.96 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.04, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 33% | Draw 33% | Al-Ittihad FC 33%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 33%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 29%, Al-Ittihad FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 2.00 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 2.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.