Damac 2-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 58%, yet in-form Al-Ahli Jeddah provide a compelling counter-argument — this Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Damac host Al-Ahli Jeddah at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 13). Kick-off is Thursday 9 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Damac — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Damac have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Ahli Jeddah have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2W 0D 3L from their last 5 away outings — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Ahli Jeddah — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Damac's games and 80% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's (from Damac's last 10 home games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 5 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Damac, 0 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Jan 2022, ended Damac 1–1 Al-Ahli Jeddah — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Damac in-play tendencies (last 12 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (last 12 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Damac 67% and Al-Ahli Jeddah 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 2.24 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 1.116 / defence 0.900 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.048 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.377. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 1.303 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Damac's projected output up. Data: built from Damac's last 42 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 12.
Result probabilities: Damac 58% | Draw 20% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 21%. Fair-value odds: Damac 1.71 | Draw 4.94 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 4.70. The model has a clear lean to Damac (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.24 / 1.30) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Damac are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ahli Jeddah (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Damac's last 10 home games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 5 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Damac 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ahli Jeddah 80% (last 5 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, matchday 13 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 9 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 58% | Draw 20% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Damac 2.24 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 1.116 / def 0.900 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.048 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Damac (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah FAQs
What time does Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Thursday 9 November 2023 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Damac 2 - 2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Pro League fixture (matchday 13) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 58% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Damac's attack at 1.12x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Damac's last 42 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
58%
1.71
20%
4.94
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Damac xG
Total xG
3.54
1.30
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
11%
9.37
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
2%
44.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Damac and 1.30 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Damac have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 3W 5D 4L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 8W 1D 3L from 12 games, 2.08 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Damac.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Damac have posted 1.80 PPG from their last 5 home games (2W 3D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Damac are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 0D 3L from their last 5 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Damac are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.00 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Damac have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Damac (Home) vs Al-Ahli Jeddah (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Damac
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Form FAQs
What form are Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 3W 5D 4L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 8W 1D 3L in their last 12 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Damac's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.80 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 May 2024, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-1 Damac.
Damac's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Damac
3
Draws
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Damac have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Damac at 80%, Al-Ahli Jeddah at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Damac and 80% for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Damac's games and 80% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Damac's matches and 80% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Damac's recent matches and 100% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah finished level at 2-2 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 2.24 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.30 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 1.12 / defence 0.90 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.05 / defence 1.30, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 58% | Draw 20% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 21%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 50%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Damac (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.