Al Wehda Club 0-2 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Wehda Club at 64% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Wehda Club face Al-Hazm.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Al Wehda Club and Al-Hazm meet at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 25 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Current Form

Al Wehda Club's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Al Wehda Club have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al Wehda Club are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Al-Hazm (all games): 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Al-Hazm's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 5D 5L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Al Wehda Club's last 10 home games and Al-Hazm's last 10 away games) — Al Wehda Club have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Al-Hazm in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Al Wehda Club edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended Al Wehda Club 2–1 Al-Hazm — a Al Wehda Club win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Al Wehda Club half-time and goal-timing data (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Wehda Club 61% and Al-Hazm 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 61% | Al-Hazm 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 2.35 xG and Al-Hazm 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 1.174 / defence 1.154 | Al-Hazm attack 0.701 / defence 1.406. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.416. Al-Hazm's defence rating of 1.406 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Wehda Club's projected output up. Al-Hazm's attack rating of 0.701 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Data: built from Al Wehda Club's last 58 games and Al-Hazm's last 28.

Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 64% | Draw 20% | Al-Hazm 17%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 1.57 | Draw 5.06 | Al-Hazm 6.03. The model has a clear lean to Al Wehda Club (64%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.35 / 1.15) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Wehda Club at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.50 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Wehda Club's last 10 home games and Al-Hazm's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Wehda Club 90% (last 10 home games) | Al-Hazm 60% (last 10 away games).

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