Al Taee 2-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Al Taee take on Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium plays host to Al Taee versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 15 October 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al Taee's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Al Taee have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taee's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al Taee 0W, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2022, ended 0–4 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Taee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 40% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 54% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 0.89 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 1.125 / defence 0.715 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.075 / defence 0.646. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.087. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.646 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al Taee's defence rating of 0.715 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Al Taee games / 37 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 34% | Draw 36% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 2.94 | Draw 2.78 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.23. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's lower xG of 0.84 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.73 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Taee 50% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 34% | Draw 36% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 34% | xG Al Taee 0.89 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 1.125 / def 0.715 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.075 / def 0.646 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Taee 2 - 3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 34% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 31% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Al Taee and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al Taee 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2W.
What form are Al Taee and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Taee (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Taee's attack at 1.12x the league average against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence at 0.65x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.07x) against Al Taee's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.96
36%
2.81
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Al Taee xG
Total xG
1.73
0.84
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
2.96
34%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.8 | 14.9 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Al Taee and 0.84 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Taee come into this having played 37 games, going 16W 4D 17L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al Taee, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC sit at 2.19 PPG from 37 outings (24W 9D 4L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Al Taee — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al Taee's home form reads 10W 3D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Al Taee are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken 2.17 points per game from 18 outings (11W 6D 1L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taee are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 1.97 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Early Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 16W 4D 17L in their last 37 games (1.41 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 24W 9D 4L in their last 37 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.83 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Al Taee or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taee have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-4 on 11 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taee have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Taee
1
Draws
5
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2024, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-1 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 56%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al Taee) and 44% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taee keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Al Taee's recent matches and 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al Taee's matches and 44% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al Taee and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Hilal Saudi FC defy the odds to beat Al Taee 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Taee 2-3 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 0.89 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0.84 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al Taee beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 0.84 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 1.12 / defence 0.71 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.65, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 34% | Draw 36% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Al-Hilal Saudi FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 54%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Taee (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.