Al Taee 1-3 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taee at 42%, yet in-form Al-Fayha provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Taee vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Fayha make the trip to Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium to face Al Taee in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Friday 27 August 2021 at 17:15 UTC.
Current Form
Al Taee's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Al Taee have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha (all games): 1W 1D 0L across 2 Pro League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Fayha are 2.00 PPG clear of Al Taee in recent Pro League fixtures (2.00 vs 0.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.36 xG and Al-Fayha 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 0.947 / defence 1.150 | Al-Fayha attack 0.871 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.000. Data: 2 Al Taee games / 2 Al-Fayha games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Taee 42% | Draw 34% | Al-Fayha 24%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Al-Fayha 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taee are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Fayha (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taee if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 42% | Draw 34% | Al-Fayha 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Al Taee 1.36 / Al-Fayha 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 0.947 / def 1.150 | Al-Fayha attack 0.871 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Al Taee (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Al-Fayha xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Taee vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 17:15 on Friday 27 August 2021 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al-Fayha?
Al Taee 1 - 3 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Taee vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Taee vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 42% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Al Taee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al Taee and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Fayha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Taee and Al-Fayha in?
Al Taee (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Taee's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.87x) against Al Taee's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taee Win
42%
2.39
34%
2.96
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.36
1.00
Al-Fayha xG
2.39
42%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
6%
15.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.00 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Taee's recent record stands at 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Taee, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 0L across 2 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Fayha by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Taee heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taee are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taee have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Fayha in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Al Taee or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taee have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taee have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Taee
1
Draws
4
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Fayha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 1, Al-Fayha have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2024, when Al-Fayha 1-0 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al Taee's recent matches and 50% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taee vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al Taee's recent games and 0% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taee and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Taee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al Taee 1-3 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.36 xG and Al-Fayha 1.00 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fayha outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Al-Fayha attack 0.87 / defence 1.08, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 42% | Draw 34% | Al-Fayha 24%, with Al Taee to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Al-Fayha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 0%, Al-Fayha 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fayha arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Taee scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fayha scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.