Al Taee 1-0 Al-Adalah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taee at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taee vs Al-Adalah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taee and Al-Adalah meet at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Pro League (matchday 2). This fixture gets under way on Friday 2 September 2022 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Al Taee's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Taee's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Adalah have collected 0.00 PPG across their last 1 games: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
Form favours the hosts. Al Taee's 1.50 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Al-Adalah's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.48 xG and Al-Adalah 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 1.150 / defence 0.928 | Al-Adalah attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.372. Data: built from Al Taee's last 31 games and Al-Adalah's last 1. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al Taee 46% | Draw 26% | Al-Adalah 28%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 2.16 | Draw 3.84 | Al-Adalah 3.61. Al Taee hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taee as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taee if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though recent form (Al Taee's last 10 home games and Al-Adalah's last 1 games) averaging 3.1 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's sample (Al Taee 31 games, Al-Adalah 1) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al-Adalah | Competition: Pro League, matchday 2 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 2 September 2022 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 46% | Draw 26% | Al-Adalah 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Al Taee 1.48 / Al-Adalah 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 1.150 / def 0.928 | Al-Adalah attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Al Taee (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Al-Adalah xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Taee vs Al-Adalah FAQs
What time does Al Taee vs Al-Adalah kick off?
Al Taee vs Al-Adalah kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Friday 2 September 2022 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al-Adalah?
Al Taee 1 - 0 Al-Adalah.
Where is Al Taee vs Al-Adalah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al-Adalah part of?
Al Taee vs Al-Adalah is a Pro League fixture (matchday 2) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al-Adalah?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 46% chance of winning, Al-Adalah a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Taee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al-Adalah?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al Taee and Al-Adalah will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Taee vs Al-Adalah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Taee's attack at 1.15x the league average against Al-Adalah's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Adalah's attack (0.85x) against Al Taee's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from Al Taee's last 31 games and Al-Adalah's last 1, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taee Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.84
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.56
1.08
Al-Adalah xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
6%
15.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Taee vs Al-Adalah Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al-Adalah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al-Adalah expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.08 for Al-Adalah, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al-Adalah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Taee's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five.
Al-Adalah, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taee by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Adalah heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taee are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Adalah are on 0.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taee have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al-Adalah in 0%.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Early Season
Al-Adalah
Early Season
Al Taee (Home) vs Al-Adalah (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Taee
Early Season
Al-Adalah
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Al Taee vs Al-Adalah Form FAQs
What form are Al Taee and Al-Adalah in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Al-Adalah have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Al Taee and Al-Adalah, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 16 February 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al Taee
1
Draws
0
Al-Adalah
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Taee vs Al-Adalah H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Adalah?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Taee have won 1, Al-Adalah have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al-Adalah last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 February 2023: Al-Adalah 2-2 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al-Adalah?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al-Adalah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Taee vs Al-Adalah Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Taee and Al-Adalah matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Al Taee's recent matches and 0% of Al-Adalah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Taee and Al-Adalah matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al Taee's matches and 100% of Al-Adalah's.
Do Al Taee and Al-Adalah matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Al Taee's recent matches and 100% of Al-Adalah's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Taee edge out Al-Adalah 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee beat Al-Adalah 1-0 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.48 xG and Al-Adalah 1.08 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Adalah landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 1.15 / defence 0.93 against Al-Adalah attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 46% | Draw 26% | Al-Adalah 28%, with Al Taee to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 100%, Al-Adalah 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taee arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Al Taee managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Adalah conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.