Al Taawon 2-0 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Taawon host Al Wehda Club at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 6 October 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Taawon — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Al Taawon have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wehda Club have recorded 1W 1D 3L from 5 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Al Wehda Club have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Wehda Club have posted 0W 0D 3L from 3 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al Taawon are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 60% versus Al Wehda Club 20%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Taawon 20% | Al Wehda Club 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.39 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.983 / defence 0.902 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.599 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.042. Al Wehda Club bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Al Taawon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Al Taawon games / 5 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 57% | Draw 28% | Al Wehda Club 15%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.75 | Draw 3.57 | Al Wehda Club 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Al Wehda Club's lower xG of 0.56 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 60% | Al Wehda Club 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Oct 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 57% | Draw 28% | Al Wehda Club 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 32% | xG Al Taawon 1.39 / Al Wehda Club 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.983 / def 0.902 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.599 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Al Wehda Club xG
32%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 16:30 on Thursday 6 October 2022 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club?
Al Taawon 2 - 0 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 57% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 15% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Al Taawon and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Wehda Club?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Taawon and Al Wehda Club in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Al Wehda Club (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Taawon's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Al Wehda Club's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wehda Club's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 0.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 18.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.6%), 2-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
57%
1.74
28%
3.62
15%
6.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
1.95
0.56
Al Wehda Club xG
1.74
57%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
6.65
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.09
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
57%
1.76
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
33%
3.06
4%
26.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 8.0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.7 | 11.1 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 7.7 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.56 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Taawon come into this having played 5 games, going 3W 2D 0L for 2.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Wehda Club sit at 0.80 PPG from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Taawon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.40 PPG clear of Al Wehda Club — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Al Taawon are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al Wehda Club in 20%.
Defensively: Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Early Season
Al Wehda Club
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 games (2.20 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
Have Al Taawon or Al Wehda Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al Wehda Club in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taawon and Al Wehda Club runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Wehda Club go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Sep 2023, when Al Taawon won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al Wehda Club specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Taawon
2
Draws
2
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Wehda Club?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 2, Al Wehda Club have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Al Taawon 0-2 Al Wehda Club.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taawon see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Al Wehda Club see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 60%, Al Wehda Club 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Al Taawon and 20% for Al Wehda Club.
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al Wehda Club in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al Wehda Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 20% of Al Wehda Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Al Taawon's recent games and 20% of Al Wehda Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Al Taawon cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Wehda Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al Wehda Club 2-0 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.39 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.56 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.98 / defence 0.90 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.60 / defence 1.23, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 57% | Draw 28% | Al Wehda Club 15%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 20% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 20%, Al Wehda Club 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. Al Wehda Club shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.