Al Taawon 3-0 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al Taee encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taee make the trip to Al Taawon Club Stadium to face Al Taawon in Pro League (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Thursday 5 October 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Al Taawon have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Taawon's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Taee's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Al Taee have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.80 in Al Taawon's favour (2.50 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Al Taawon's last 10 home games and Al Taee's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Al Taawon's games and 70% of Al Taee's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Al Taawon edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 May 2023, ended Al Taawon 2–1 Al Taee — a Al Taawon win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al Taawon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Al Taee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 66% versus Al Taee 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 53% | Al Taee 58%). Note also that Al Taee surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Al Taawon recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 2.19 xG and Al Taee 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.173 / defence 0.885 | Al Taee attack 0.895 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.440. Al Taee's defence rating of 1.232 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Taawon's projected output up. Data: built from Al Taawon's last 38 games and Al Taee's last 38.
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 61% | Draw 20% | Al Taee 19%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.63 | Draw 5.02 | Al Taee 5.29. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.19 / 1.14) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Taawon's last 10 home games and Al Taee's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Taawon 80% (last 10 home games) | Al Taee 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, matchday 9 | Venue: Al Taawon Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 October 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 61% | Draw 20% | Al Taee 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Al Taawon 2.19 / Al Taee 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.173 / def 0.885 | Al Taee attack 0.895 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Al Taee xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Taawon vs Al Taee FAQs
What time does Al Taawon vs Al Taee kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al Taee kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Thursday 5 October 2023 at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al Taee?
Al Taawon 3 - 0 Al Taee.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al Taee part of?
Al Taawon vs Al Taee is a Pro League fixture (matchday 9) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 61% chance of winning, Al Taee a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Taawon and Al Taee will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Taawon vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (1.17) and Al Taee's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Taee's attack (0.90x) against Al Taawon's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from Al Taawon's last 38 games and Al Taee's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
61%
1.63
20%
5.02
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
3.33
1.14
Al Taee xG
1.63
61%
Home win
5.02
20%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
11%
8.94
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
2%
47.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Taawon vs Al Taee Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.14 for Al Taee, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al Taee?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 22W 8D 8L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Al Taee's form line: 12W 5D 21L from 38 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Al Taawon are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taee.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Taawon have posted 1.89 PPG from their last 18 home games (10W 4D 4L).
On the road, Al Taee have gone 2W 4D 12L from their last 18 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Taee's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taawon are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.26 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
Al Taawon (Home) vs Al Taee (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Al Taawon vs Al Taee Form FAQs
What form are Al Taawon and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 22W 8D 8L in their last 38 games (1.95 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 12W 5D 21L in their last 38 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al Taee away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.89 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 2 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Al Taawon have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won Al Taawon 3-0 Al Taee on 5 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Taee — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al Taawon
1
Draws
1
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Taawon vs Al Taee H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Taee?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Taawon have won 4, Al Taee have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al Taee last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 April 2024: Al Taee 2-3 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al Taee?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 72%, Al Taee 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al Taawon) and 56% (Al Taee). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taee in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Taawon vs Al Taee Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Taawon and Al Taee matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Al Taawon's games and 56% of Al Taee's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Taawon and Al Taee matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al Taawon's matches and 56% of Al Taee's.
Do Al Taawon and Al Taee matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 67% of Al Taee's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Taawon run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Taee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al Taee 3-0 at Al Taawon Club Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 2.19 xG and Al Taee 1.14 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al Taawon beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Taee landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.17 / defence 0.89 against Al Taee attack 0.90 / defence 1.23, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 61% | Draw 20% | Al Taee 19%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 53%, Al Taee 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Taee's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.