Al Taawon 1-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Taawon face Al Okhdood.

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Analysis & Preview

Al Okhdood travel to Al Taawoun Club Stadium to take on Al Taawon in Pro League (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Al Taawon — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters, Al Taawon have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al Taawon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Al Okhdood have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Al Okhdood's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Taawon at 1.50 PPG versus Al Okhdood's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Al Taawon, 0 for Al Okhdood and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Feb 2024, ended Al Taawon 3–1 Al Okhdood — a Al Taawon win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 51% versus Al Okhdood 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 40% | Al Okhdood 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.52 xG and Al Okhdood 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.971 / defence 0.767 | Al Okhdood attack 1.034 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.283. Al Taawon have a tight defence (rating 0.767), which is pulling Al Okhdood's projected output down. Data: built from Al Taawon's last 43 games and Al Okhdood's last 43.

Result probabilities: Al Taawon 49% | Draw 26% | Al Okhdood 25%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.04 | Draw 3.89 | Al Okhdood 3.95. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Taawon 30% (last 10 home games) | Al Okhdood 50% (last 10 away games).

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