Al Taawon 4-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Taawon face Al-Fayha.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al Taawon and Al-Fayha meet at Al Taawon Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Al Taawon have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al Taawon at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al Taawon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Al-Fayha (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Al Taawon, 1.30 for Al-Fayha — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Al Taawon's last 10 home games and Al-Fayha's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Al Taawon's games and 70% of Al-Fayha's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Al Taawon, 0 for Al-Fayha and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 23 Feb 2023, ended Al Taawon 1–1 Al-Fayha — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Al Taawon half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 64% versus Al-Fayha 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 51% | Al-Fayha 47%). Note also that Al-Fayha surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Al Taawon recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.26 xG and Al-Fayha 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.924 / defence 0.823 | Al-Fayha attack 1.049 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.433. Data: built from Al Taawon's last 45 games and Al-Fayha's last 45.

Result probabilities: Al Taawon 36% | Draw 29% | Al-Fayha 35%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.78 | Draw 3.47 | Al-Fayha 2.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Taawon 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fayha 70% (last 10 away games).

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