Al Taawon 1-3 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Al-Fateh travel to Al Taawon Club Stadium to take on Al Taawon. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 December 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's home record at Al Taawon Club Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Taawon 1.80 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Al Taawon have won 1, Al-Fateh 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 64% versus Al-Fateh 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 51% | Al-Fateh 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.68 xG and Al-Fateh 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.083 / defence 0.857 | Al-Fateh attack 0.962 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.351. Data: 47 Al Taawon games / 47 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 50% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 25%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Fateh 4.00. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 70% | Al-Fateh 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Al Taawon Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 50% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Al Taawon 1.68 / Al-Fateh 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.083 / def 0.857 | Al-Fateh attack 0.962 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Al-Fateh xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Al Taawon 1 - 3 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 50% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Fateh?
Record (5 meetings): Al Taawon 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Fateh 2W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Fateh in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (1.08) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
50%
2.00
25%
3.96
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.80
1.11
Al-Fateh xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
5%
21.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.4 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.11 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Taawon's recent record stands at 26W 11D 10L from 47 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 20W 8D 19L across 47 games — 1.45 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taawon by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fateh heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Taawon have managed 12W 6D 5L from 23 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 11W 3D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Taawon are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.66 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 26W 11D 10L in their last 47 games (1.89 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 20W 8D 19L in their last 47 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.83 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Taawon have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Oct 2021, when Al-Fateh won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Taawon
2
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 5, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Al Taawon 3-2 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Fateh?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Taawon at 70%, Al-Fateh at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Al Taawon and 78% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Al Taawon's games and 61% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al Taawon's matches and 78% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Taawon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al Taawon 1-3 at Al Taawon Club Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.68 xG and Al-Fateh 1.11 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fateh outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.08 / defence 0.86 against Al-Fateh attack 0.96 / defence 1.01, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 50% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 25%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Al-Fateh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 51%, Al-Fateh 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.45. Form was overturned, with Al-Fateh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Taawon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.