Al Shabab 1-0 Al-Faisaly FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Shabab and Al-Faisaly FC meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 12 May 2022 at 18:50 UTC.
Form
Al Shabab (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Shabab have posted 7W 2D 1L at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al Shabab are significantly better at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Faisaly FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Faisaly FC's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Al Shabab against 1.30 for Al-Faisaly FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al Shabab, 0 for Al-Faisaly FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al Shabab — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Al-Faisaly FC — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 58% versus Al-Faisaly FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 65% | Al-Faisaly FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.62 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.106 / defence 1.030 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.564 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.217 / away 1.209. Al-Faisaly FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Al Shabab's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Al Shabab games / 26 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 59% | Draw 25% | Al-Faisaly FC 16%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Faisaly FC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al Shabab (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 50% | Al-Faisaly FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 12 May 2022, 18:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 59% | Draw 25% | Al-Faisaly FC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 40% | xG Al Shabab 1.62 / Al-Faisaly FC 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.106 / def 1.030 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.564 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.217 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Al-Faisaly FC xG
40%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC kicked off at 18:50 on Thursday 12 May 2022 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Al Shabab 1 - 0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 59% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Faisaly FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al Shabab 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Faisaly FC 0W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Shabab's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Al-Faisaly FC's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Al-Faisaly FC's attack (0.56x) against Al Shabab's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
59%
1.68
25%
4.07
16%
6.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.32
0.70
Al-Faisaly FC xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
6.24
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
29%
3.40
3%
31.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 11.2 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Al Shabab and 0.70 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 13W 8D 5L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Faisaly FC's form line: 6W 11D 9L from 26 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Faisaly FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 2.15 PPG from 13 outings (8W 4D 1L).
On the road, Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 6D 7L from 13 away games — 0.46 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Faisaly FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Shabab are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 0.96 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 13W 8D 5L in their last 26 games (1.81 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 6W 11D 9L in their last 26 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Faisaly FC away?
Al Shabab's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 2.15 PPG; Al-Faisaly FC away: 0.46 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Faisaly FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al-Faisaly FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al Shabab
1
Draws
0
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2022, when Al Shabab 1-0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Faisaly FC?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 54%, Al-Faisaly FC 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al Shabab) and 31% (Al-Faisaly FC).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Faisaly FC in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Faisaly FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 38% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Al Shabab's recent games and 31% of Al-Faisaly FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Shabab edge out Al-Faisaly FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Faisaly FC 1-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.62 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.70 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.11 / defence 1.03 against Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.56 / defence 1.20, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 59% | Draw 25% | Al-Faisaly FC 16%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 65%, Al-Faisaly FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.