Al Shabab 3-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al Shabab versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Friday 30 December 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Shabab have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's home record at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Ettifaq's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Al Shabab's 2.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Al-Ettifaq's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Al Shabab have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Al-Ettifaq in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al Shabab 0W, Al-Ettifaq 0W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 49% versus Al-Ettifaq 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 59% | Al-Ettifaq 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.23 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.285 / defence 0.763 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.980 / defence 0.743. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.131. Al Shabab carry an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — their λ of 1.23 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ettifaq's defence strength of 0.743 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al Shabab's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Al Shabab games / 40 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 45% | Draw 30% | Al-Ettifaq 25%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Ettifaq 4.00. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 20% | Al-Ettifaq 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 30 Dec 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 45% | Draw 30% | Al-Ettifaq 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Al Shabab 1.23 / Al-Ettifaq 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.285 / def 0.763 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.980 / def 0.743 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Al-Ettifaq xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 30 December 2022 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Shabab 3 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 45% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (2 meetings): Al Shabab 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Ettifaq 0W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 1.28x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.98x) against Al Shabab's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
45%
2.23
30%
3.35
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.07
0.85
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
7%
13.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 10.6 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Al Shabab and 0.85 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Shabab come into this having played 39 games, going 22W 11D 6L for 1.97 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.13 PPG from 39 outings (10W 14D 15L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al Shabab's home form reads 13W 5D 1L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 1.21 points per game from 19 outings (5W 8D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Shabab are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.23 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Al-Ettifaq in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 22W 11D 6L in their last 39 games (1.97 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 10W 14D 15L in their last 39 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al Shabab's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 2.32 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 3-0 on 30 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Shabab
5
Draws
4
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 37%, Al-Ettifaq 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al Shabab) and 47% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 42%; Al-Ettifaq in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 42% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Al Shabab's recent games and 47% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Shabab run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Ettifaq 3-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.23 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.85 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ettifaq landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.28 / defence 0.76 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.98 / defence 0.74, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 45% | Draw 30% | Al-Ettifaq 25%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 59%, Al-Ettifaq 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.