Al Riyadh 1-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Riyadh host Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 8 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Riyadh — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Al Riyadh have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have recorded 10W 0D 0L from 10 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC — 1.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al Riyadh, 1 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 7.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2023, ended 1–6 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al Riyadh in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 50% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 54% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 0.67 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.685 / defence 0.924 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.411 / defence 0.672. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.498. Al Riyadh's attack strength of 0.685 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.672 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.411 — the away xG of 1.95 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 Al Riyadh games / 52 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 11% | Draw 23% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 66%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 9.09 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (66%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Al Riyadh 40% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 8 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 11% | Draw 23% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 43% | xG Al Riyadh 0.67 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.685 / def 0.924 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.411 / def 0.672 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.498 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
43%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 8 March 2024 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Riyadh 1 - 3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 11% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 66% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al Riyadh 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1W.
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.50 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Riyadh's attack at 0.69x the league average against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence at 0.67x — combine the two and it projects 0.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al Riyadh's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
11%
9.50
23%
4.33
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.8%
Away win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.63
1.95
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
9.50
11%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
14%
7.06
51%
1.96
Win to Nil
1%
67.02
34%
2.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 14.1 | 13.8 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 1.95 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Al Riyadh have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 6W 5D 11L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 20W 2D 0L from 22 games, 2.82 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 1.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Riyadh.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Riyadh have posted 1.00 PPG from 10 outings (2W 4D 4L).
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 away games — 2.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Riyadh are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 3.05 scored and 0.50 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 59% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 6W 5D 11L in their last 22 games (1.05 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 20W 2D 0L in their last 22 (2.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.80 PPG.
Have Al Riyadh or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Riyadh have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 59%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Sep 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Riyadh's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Riyadh
2
Draws
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Al Riyadh 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 40%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Al Riyadh) and 60% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 60%; Al Riyadh have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 40% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 60% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Riyadh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Riyadh 1-3 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 0.67 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.95 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 1.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.69 / defence 0.92 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.41 / defence 0.67, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 11% | Draw 23% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 66%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 54%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.82 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.