Al Riyadh 0-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Riyadh face Al-Ettifaq.

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Fixture Analysis

Al Riyadh welcome Al-Ettifaq to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 24 November 2024 at 14:40 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Al Riyadh have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Al Riyadh's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Ettifaq — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Al-Ettifaq have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Al Riyadh) versus 1.10 (Al-Ettifaq). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al Riyadh's games and 60% of Al-Ettifaq's (from Al Riyadh's last 10 home games and Al-Ettifaq's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Al Riyadh have won 1, Al-Ettifaq 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 6 Apr 2024, ended Al Riyadh 0–1 Al-Ettifaq — a Al-Ettifaq win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Al Riyadh trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Al-Ettifaq trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 57% versus Al-Ettifaq 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 54% | Al-Ettifaq 36%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Riyadh surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Al-Ettifaq have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.10 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.817 / defence 0.957 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.999 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.261. Data: built from Al Riyadh's last 44 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 44.

Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 33% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 38%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 2.99 | Draw 3.54 | Al-Ettifaq 2.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Al Riyadh 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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