Al-Raed 0-0 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Taawon at 48% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al Taawon encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Al Taawon travel to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to take on Al-Raed in Pro League (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Raed stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Raed's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al Taawon — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Al Taawon's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Al-Raed) versus 1.40 (Al Taawon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Raed's games and 60% of Al Taawon's (from Al-Raed's last 10 home games and Al Taawon's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

Despite the home advantage, Al Taawon have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 1 for Al-Raed.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2023, ended Al-Raed 1–2 Al Taawon — a Al Taawon win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Al Taawon have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 4.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

In-Play Profile

Al-Raed in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Al Taawon in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Raed 58% and Al Taawon 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 68% | Al Taawon 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Raed surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Al Taawon have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.35 xG and Al Taawon 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.981 / defence 1.134 | Al Taawon attack 1.107 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.471. Data: built from Al-Raed's last 53 games and Al Taawon's last 53.

Result probabilities: Al-Raed 28% | Draw 24% | Al Taawon 48%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 3.62 | Draw 4.18 | Al Taawon 2.06. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.35 / 1.85) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Al Taawon 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Raed's last 10 home games and Al Taawon's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Raed 60% (last 10 home games) | Al Taawon 60% (last 10 away games).

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