Al-Raed 0-0 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Raed host Al Khaleej Saihat at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Raed — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Raed at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Raed at 1.20 PPG versus Al Khaleej Saihat's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Raed have won 0, Al Khaleej Saihat 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2023, ended 0–3 with Al Khaleej Saihat winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 61% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 71% | Al Khaleej Saihat 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.79 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 1.251 / defence 1.213 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.898 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.264. Al-Raed carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 1.79 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 Al-Raed games / 28 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 47% | Draw 23% | Al Khaleej Saihat 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Al Khaleej Saihat 3.33. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Raed at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Raed 80% | Al Khaleej Saihat 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 47% | Draw 23% | Al Khaleej Saihat 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Raed 1.79 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 1.251 / def 1.213 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.898 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Raed 0 - 0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 47% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Raed 0W | Draws 0 | Al Khaleej Saihat 1W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Raed's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Al Khaleej Saihat's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, Al Khaleej Saihat's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
47%
2.12
23%
4.33
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
3.16
1.38
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
5%
20.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.4 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.38 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Raed come into this having played 28 games, going 9W 6D 13L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Al Khaleej Saihat sit at 0.96 PPG from 28 outings (8W 3D 17L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Raed on 1.18 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Raed's home form reads 5W 2D 7L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Khaleej Saihat have taken 0.71 points per game from 14 outings (3W 1D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Raed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Raed are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 0.96 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Raed have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Current Season
Al Khaleej Saihat
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 9W 6D 13L in their last 28 games (1.18 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 8W 3D 17L in their last 28 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al-Raed's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.21 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Khaleej Saihat go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Nov 2024, when Al Khaleej Saihat won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al Khaleej Saihat specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al-Raed
2
Draws
4
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 0, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Al-Raed 1-2 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Khaleej Saihat have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 64%, Al Khaleej Saihat 21% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Al-Raed) and 36% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 21% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Al-Raed's recent games and 36% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Raed's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat drew 0-0 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.79 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.38 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Raed fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Al Khaleej Saihat landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 1.25 / defence 1.21 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.90 / defence 0.98, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 47% | Draw 23% | Al Khaleej Saihat 30%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 71%, Al Khaleej Saihat 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.18 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.