Al-Raed 1-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Al-Fayha travel to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to take on Al-Raed. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022, 14:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Raed — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al-Raed are significantly better at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 1W 7D 2L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Raed at 0.80 PPG versus Al-Fayha's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Raed, 1 for Al-Fayha and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Al-Fayha winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 43% versus Al-Fayha 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Raed 52% | Al-Fayha 19%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 0.96 xG and Al-Fayha 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.783 / defence 1.184 | Al-Fayha attack 0.663 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.189. Al-Raed's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Al-Raed games / 21 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 34% | Draw 33% | Al-Fayha 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Fayha 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Raed as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.89 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 30% | Al-Fayha 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 34% | Draw 33% | Al-Fayha 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Al-Raed 0.96 / Al-Fayha 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.783 / def 1.184 | Al-Fayha attack 0.663 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Al-Fayha xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 14:45 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Raed 1 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 34% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Fayha?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Raed 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Raed's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
34%
2.93
33%
3.02
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
1.89
0.93
Al-Fayha xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 14.1 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Al-Raed and 0.93 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Raed's recent record stands at 6W 5D 10L from 21 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 6W 9D 6L across 21 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Raed on 1.10 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Raed have managed 4W 2D 3L from 9 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Al-Raed are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 0W 4D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.44 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Fayha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Raed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Raed are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.86 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Fayha in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 6W 5D 10L in their last 21 games (1.10 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 6W 9D 6L in their last 21 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Raed's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.56 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.44 PPG.
Have Al-Raed or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Raed and Al-Fayha runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Al-Raed won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al-Raed
2
Draws
4
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Fayha?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 2, Al-Fayha have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Al-Raed 0-2 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Raed see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 33%, Al-Fayha 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al-Raed and 22% for Al-Fayha.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 56% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Raed's recent games and 22% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Raed edge out Al-Fayha 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al-Fayha 1-0 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 0.96 xG and Al-Fayha 0.93 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fayha landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.78 / defence 1.18 against Al-Fayha attack 0.66 / defence 1.06, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 34% | Draw 33% | Al-Fayha 33%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 52%, Al-Fayha 19%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.10 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Raed win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Raed (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.