Al-Raed 3-1 Al Baten – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Raed face Al Baten.

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Match Analysis

Al-Raed host Al Baten at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Tuesday 2 May 2023 at 18:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Al-Raed — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Al-Raed's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Baten stand at 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Al Baten have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Raed at 1.00 PPG versus Al Baten's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Al-Raed have won 2, Al Baten 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Dec 2022, ended Al-Raed 2–1 Al Baten — a Al-Raed win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Al-Raed in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Al Baten in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 46% versus Al Baten 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 57% | Al Baten 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.78 xG and Al Baten 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.948 / defence 1.372 | Al Baten attack 0.796 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.275. Al Baten's defence rating of 1.310 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Raed's projected output up. Al Baten's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.39. Al-Raed's defence rating of 1.372 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Baten's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Raed's last 54 games and Al Baten's last 54.

Result probabilities: Al-Raed 46% | Draw 24% | Al Baten 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.16 | Draw 4.13 | Al Baten 3.38. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.78 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Raed at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Raed's last 10 home games and Al Baten's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Raed 80% (last 10 home games) | Al Baten 50% (last 10 away games).

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