Al-Raed 1-0 Abha – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Abha at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Abha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sport City Stadium plays host to Al-Raed versus Abha in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Monday 27 June 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Raed have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Raed have posted 4W 1D 5L at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al-Raed are significantly better at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Abha's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Abha have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Al-Raed against 1.00 for Abha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Raed lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with Abha winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Abha half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 38% versus Abha 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 48% | Abha 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 0.91 xG and Abha 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.655 / defence 1.204 | Abha attack 0.638 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.331. Al-Raed's attack strength of 0.655 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Abha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.296 — this is suppressing Al-Raed's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Al-Raed games / 29 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 31% | Draw 31% | Abha 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Abha 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Abha at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Abha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 20% | Abha 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jun 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 31% | Draw 31% | Abha 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Al-Raed 0.91 / Abha 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.655 / def 1.204 | Abha attack 0.638 / def 1.296 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Abha (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Abha xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Abha kick off?
Al-Raed vs Abha kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 27 June 2022 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Abha?
Al-Raed 1 - 0 Abha.
Where is Al-Raed vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Abha part of?
Al-Raed vs Abha is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 31% chance of winning, Abha a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Al-Raed and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Abha?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Raed 0W | Draws 0 | Abha 1W.
What form are Al-Raed and Abha in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Abha (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Raed's attack rating (0.66) and Abha's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Abha's attack (0.64x) against Al-Raed's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
31%
3.19
31%
3.18
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
1.93
1.02
Abha xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
11%
8.88
15%
6.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 14.8 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.02 for Abha, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Abha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Raed come into this having played 29 games, going 9W 6D 14L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Abha sit at 1.21 PPG from 29 outings (9W 8D 12L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Al-Raed against 1.21 for Abha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Raed's home form reads 6W 2D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Abha have taken 0.64 points per game from 14 outings (2W 3D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Abha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Raed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Raed are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 0.93 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Current Season
Abha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 9W 6D 14L in their last 29 games (1.14 PPG), while Abha have gone 9W 8D 12L in their last 29 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Abha away?
Al-Raed's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.43 PPG; Abha away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Raed have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Abha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al-Raed
0
Draws
3
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Abha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 3, Abha have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2023, when Al-Raed 4-3 Abha.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 21%, Abha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Al-Raed) and 43% (Abha).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Al-Raed have failed to score in 36% of games; Abha in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 50% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Al-Raed's recent games and 43% of Abha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Abha tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Abha in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Raed defy the odds to beat Abha 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Abha 1-0 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 0.91 xG and Abha 1.02 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Abha landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.66 / defence 1.20 against Abha attack 0.64 / defence 1.30, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 31% | Draw 31% | Abha 37%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Al-Raed win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 48%, Abha 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Abha's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.14 PPG, Abha 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Raed win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Raed (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Abha (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.