Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-0 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Riyadh encounter.

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Analysis

Al Riyadh make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al-Qadisiyah FC in Pro League (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Sunday 2 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time.

Form

Al-Qadisiyah FC (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Al Riyadh's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Al Riyadh away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward Al-Qadisiyah FC. A 1.00 PPG lead over Al Riyadh (2.20 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 1 for Al Riyadh and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2024, ended Al-Qadisiyah FC 1–2 Al Riyadh — a Al Riyadh win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (last 22 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.

Al Riyadh — key trading statistics (last 22 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 36% versus Al Riyadh 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% | Al Riyadh 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.58 xG and Al Riyadh 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.939 / defence 0.797 | Al Riyadh attack 0.926 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.350. Al-Qadisiyah FC have a tight defence (rating 0.797), which is pulling Al Riyadh's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 22 games and Al Riyadh's last 56.

Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 51% | Draw 25% | Al Riyadh 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.97 | Draw 3.96 | Al Riyadh 4.18. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Al-Qadisiyah FC 20% (last 10 home games) | Al Riyadh 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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