Al Okhdood 0-1 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Riyadh at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium plays host to Al Okhdood versus Al Riyadh in Pro League (matchday 7). Kick-off: Sunday 20 October 2024 at 17:20 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Al Okhdood have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Al Okhdood have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Riyadh (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Riyadh away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al Riyadh arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Al Okhdood's last 10 home games and Al Riyadh's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Al Okhdood's games and 70% of Al Riyadh's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Al Okhdood, 1 for Al Riyadh and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Mar 2024, ended Al Okhdood 1–2 Al Riyadh — a Al Riyadh win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Okhdood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al Riyadh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 48% versus Al Riyadh 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 55% | Al Riyadh 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Okhdood surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Al Riyadh have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.30 xG and Al Riyadh 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.775 / defence 1.074 | Al Riyadh attack 0.966 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.277. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.775 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.30. Data: built from Al Okhdood's last 40 games and Al Riyadh's last 40.
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 36% | Draw 26% | Al Riyadh 37%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 2.74 | Draw 3.81 | Al Riyadh 2.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Riyadh at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Al Okhdood's last 10 home games and Al Riyadh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Okhdood 70% (last 10 home games) | Al Riyadh 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 7 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 October 2024 at 17:20 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 36% | Draw 26% | Al Riyadh 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Al Okhdood 1.30 / Al Riyadh 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.775 / def 1.074 | Al Riyadh attack 0.966 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Al Riyadh (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Al Riyadh xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh FAQs
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 17:20 UK time on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh?
Al Okhdood 0 - 1 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 7) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 36% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Riyadh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al Riyadh will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Okhdood's attack rating (0.78) and Al Riyadh's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Riyadh's attack (0.97x) against Al Okhdood's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from Al Okhdood's last 40 games and Al Riyadh's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
36%
2.74
26%
3.81
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.63
1.32
Al Riyadh xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
10%
10.31
10%
9.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.32 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Okhdood's recent record stands at 10W 7D 23L from 40 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Al Riyadh, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 17L across 40 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Al Okhdood against 1.12 for Al Riyadh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Okhdood have managed 6W 2D 12L from their last 20 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Riyadh's away record stands at 5W 5D 10L across their last 20 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 1.08 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Riyadh in 60%.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Early Season
Al Riyadh
Early Season
Al Okhdood (Home) vs Al Riyadh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Okhdood
Early Season
Al Riyadh
Early Season
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh Form FAQs
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 10W 7D 23L in their last 40 games (0.92 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 11W 12D 17L in their last 40 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al Okhdood's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 1.00 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Al Okhdood and Al Riyadh, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 21 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Okhdood have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Riyadh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
4
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Riyadh?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Okhdood have won 1, Al Riyadh have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al Riyadh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 May 2026: Al Riyadh 1-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al Riyadh?
Al Riyadh have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 50%, Al Riyadh 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al Okhdood and 65% for Al Riyadh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood have failed to score in 30% of games; Al Riyadh in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Okhdood and Al Riyadh matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al Okhdood's games and 65% of Al Riyadh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Okhdood and Al Riyadh matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al Okhdood's matches and 65% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al Okhdood and Al Riyadh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 80% of Al Riyadh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Riyadh edge out Al Okhdood 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Riyadh beat Al Okhdood 0-1 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.30 xG and Al Riyadh 1.32 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Okhdood fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.78 / defence 1.07 against Al Riyadh attack 0.97 / defence 1.15, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 36% | Draw 26% | Al Riyadh 37%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 55%, Al Riyadh 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.92 PPG, Al Riyadh 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Riyadh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.