Al Okhdood 1-2 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Okhdood host Al-Fayha at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 20 October 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Okhdood stand at 2W 1D 6L from 9 Pro League matches — 0.78 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.56 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Okhdood have posted 0W 0D 5L at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium — 0.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.00 lags behind their overall 0.78 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium this season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Fayha — 0.62 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.78). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Al Okhdood in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 33% versus Al-Fayha 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Okhdood 33% | Al-Fayha 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 0.67 xG and Al-Fayha 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.524 / defence 1.102 | Al-Fayha attack 0.965 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.432. Al Okhdood's attack strength of 0.524 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Al Okhdood games / 39 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 16% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 58%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 6.25 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Fayha 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fayha (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 20% | Al-Fayha 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 16% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 38% | xG Al Okhdood 0.67 / Al-Fayha 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.524 / def 1.102 | Al-Fayha attack 0.965 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Al-Fayha xG
38%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 20 October 2023 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha?
Al Okhdood 1 - 2 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 16% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 58% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-1D-6L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 0.56 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Okhdood's attacking strength (0.52x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.67. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.6%. Close behind: 0-2 (13.0%), 1-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
16%
6.14
26%
3.87
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.0%
Away win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.19
1.52
Al-Fayha xG
6.14
16%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
51%
1.95
Win to Nil
4%
28.14
30%
3.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 17.0 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.4 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.52 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Okhdood's recent record stands at 2W 1D 6L from 9 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 2W 5D 2L across 9 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Fayha by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Okhdood heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Okhdood have managed 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.78 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 1W 2D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.00 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 2W 1D 6L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 2W 5D 2L in their last 9 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Fayha's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.00 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Al Okhdood or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Okhdood have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Fayha go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2026, when Al-Fayha won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Okhdood's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Okhdood
0
Draws
6
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 0, Al-Fayha have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Al Okhdood 0-5 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Okhdood see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 0%, Al-Fayha 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Al Okhdood) and 50% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood have failed to score in 100% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 100% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al Okhdood's recent games and 50% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Fayha edge out Al Okhdood 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al Okhdood 1-2 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 0.67 xG and Al-Fayha 1.52 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.52 / defence 1.10 against Al-Fayha attack 0.96 / defence 0.88, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 16% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 58%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 33%, Al-Fayha 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fayha arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.78. Form held, and they took the win. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.