Al-Nassr 4-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Damac.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 34 as Al-Nassr welcome Damac to King Saud University Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 21 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Al-Nassr's home record at King Saud University Stadium: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Saud University Stadium.
Damac — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Damac have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al-Nassr are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Nassr: 9 wins from 9 previous clashes against 0 for Damac, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with Al-Nassr winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Nassr and goals. The home side's 9 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Al-Nassr trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 93% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Damac trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 61% versus Damac 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 67% | Damac 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.19 xG and Damac 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.323 / defence 0.650 | Damac attack 0.727 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.399. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — their λ of 2.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Nassr's defence rating of 0.650 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 Al-Nassr games / 67 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 72% | Draw 19% | Damac 9%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.39 | Draw 5.26 | Damac 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (72%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 40% | Damac 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: King Saud University Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 21 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 72% | Draw 19% | Damac 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 44% | xG Al-Nassr 2.19 / Damac 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.323 / def 0.650 | Damac attack 0.727 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Damac xG
44%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Damac kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Damac kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 21 May 2026 at King Saud University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Damac?
Al-Nassr 4 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at King Saud University Stadium.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Damac part of?
Al-Nassr vs Damac is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 72% chance of winning, Damac a 9% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al-Nassr and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Damac?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Nassr 9W | Draws 0 | Damac 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Damac in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Damac (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.32) and Damac's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 2.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 3-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
72%
1.39
19%
5.25
9%
10.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
3 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.85
0.66
Damac xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.25
19%
Draw
10.96
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
11%
8.94
Win to Nil
37%
2.70
1%
98.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.1 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.66 for Damac, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Damac?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Nassr come into this having played 67 games, going 47W 9D 11L for 2.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Damac sit at 0.96 PPG from 67 outings (15W 19D 33L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.28 PPG clear of Damac — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Nassr's home form reads 23W 6D 4L across 33 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Damac have taken 0.73 points per game from 33 outings (5W 9D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.46 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.01 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Current Season
Damac
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 47W 9D 11L in their last 67 games (2.24 PPG), while Damac have gone 15W 19D 33L in their last 67 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Damac away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.27 PPG; Damac away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Damac in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Nassr and Damac runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 10 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2021, when Al-Nassr won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Damac specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Al-Nassr
0
Draws
0
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 10, Damac have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al-Nassr 4-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Damac?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 61%, Damac 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al-Nassr) and 48% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Damac in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Al-Nassr's games and 54% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Al-Nassr's recent games and 48% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Nassr and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Damac in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Damac 4-1 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.19 xG and Damac 0.66 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.32 / defence 0.65 against Damac attack 0.73 / defence 1.09, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 72% | Draw 19% | Damac 9%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 67%, Damac 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Damac's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.30 average — above their attacking norm. Damac (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.