Al Kholood 0-1 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Okhdood at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Kholood face Al Okhdood.

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Analysis

Al Okhdood make the trip to Ar-Rass Stadium to face Al Kholood in Pro League (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at 18:10 UK time.

Form

Al Kholood (all games): 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Al Kholood have posted 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al Kholood are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Al Okhdood have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Al Okhdood's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Al Kholood, 1.00 for Al Okhdood — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Al Kholood edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Nov 2024, ended Al Kholood 2–1 Al Okhdood — a Al Kholood win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Al Kholood half-time and goal-timing data (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Al Okhdood half-time and goal-timing data (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 61% versus Al Okhdood 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 57% | Al Okhdood 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.10 xG and Al Okhdood 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.890 / defence 1.233 | Al Okhdood attack 0.722 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.357. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.722 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. Al Kholood's defence rating of 1.233 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Okhdood's projected output up. Data: built from Al Kholood's last 28 games and Al Okhdood's last 62.

Result probabilities: Al Kholood 33% | Draw 29% | Al Okhdood 38%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 3.06 | Draw 3.41 | Al Okhdood 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Okhdood at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Okhdood if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Kholood 50% (last 10 home games) | Al Okhdood 30% (last 10 away games).

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