Al Khaleej Saihat 0-3 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al Khaleej Saihat versus Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Friday 3 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 4W 1D 4L at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium — 1.44 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 7W 3D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Ittihad FC are 1.10 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat in recent Pro League fixtures (2.30 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Khaleej Saihat lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2022, ended 0–2 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 65% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Khaleej Saihat 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 29%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 41% | Al-Ittihad FC 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 0.94 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.993 / defence 0.950 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.201 / defence 0.644. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.178. Al-Ittihad FC's defence strength of 0.644 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.201 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 17 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 48 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 26% | Draw 29% | Al-Ittihad FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.17. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 33% | Al-Ittihad FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 26% | Draw 29% | Al-Ittihad FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 0.94 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.993 / def 0.950 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.201 / def 0.644 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Al-Ittihad FC xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 3 March 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al Khaleej Saihat 0 - 3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 26% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad FC 1W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Khaleej Saihat's attack rating (0.99) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.64), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.20x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 17/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
26%
3.89
29%
3.51
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.28
1.34
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
7%
14.91
18%
5.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 13.7 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.34 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 17 games, going 5W 1D 11L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 2.24 PPG from 17 outings (11W 5D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.30 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al Khaleej Saihat's home form reads 4W 1D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Al Khaleej Saihat are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 2.25 points per game from 8 outings (5W 3D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.65 scored and 0.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 24% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad FC in 29%.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 65% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 5W 1D 11L in their last 17 games (0.94 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 11W 5D 1L in their last 17 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.62 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Al Khaleej Saihat or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Khaleej Saihat have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 65%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 0-3 on 3 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
3
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 38%, Al-Ittihad FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 38% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent games and 38% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Khaleej Saihat 0-3 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 0.94 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.34 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.99 / defence 0.95 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.20 / defence 0.64, drawn from 17/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 26% | Draw 29% | Al-Ittihad FC 46%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 41%, Al-Ittihad FC 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 26%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 65% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.