Al Khaleej Saihat 4-4 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 40%, yet in-form Al-Ittihad FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al Khaleej Saihat versus Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 1 November 2025 at 14:35 UTC.
Form
Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 2W 2D 6L at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this season.
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Ittihad FC are 0.90 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat in recent Pro League fixtures (2.20 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Ittihad FC in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, Al-Ittihad FC have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Al Khaleej Saihat's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Al-Ittihad FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Khaleej Saihat 60% and Al-Ittihad FC 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 62% | Al-Ittihad FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.61 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.172 / defence 0.899 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.171 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.431. Data: 40 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 40 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 40% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ittihad FC (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 14:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 40% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.61 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.172 / def 0.899 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.171 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.431 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Al-Ittihad FC xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 14:35 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al Khaleej Saihat 4 - 4 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 40% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (6 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Ittihad FC 4W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Khaleej Saihat's attack rating (1.17) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.17x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
40%
2.52
25%
4.01
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
3.12
1.51
Al-Ittihad FC xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
9%
11.36
7%
14.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.7 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.51 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 40 games, going 13W 8D 19L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 2.33 PPG from 40 outings (29W 6D 5L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al Khaleej Saihat's home form reads 6W 4D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 2.05 points per game from 20 outings (12W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.25 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad FC in 68%.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 13W 8D 19L in their last 40 games (1.18 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 29W 6D 5L in their last 40 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.10 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 0-3 on 3 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
3
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Khaleej Saihat see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 50%, Al-Ittihad FC 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 55% (Al-Ittihad FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al Khaleej Saihat's games and 70% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 55% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC drew 4-4 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.61 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.51 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.51 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.17 / defence 0.90 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.17 / defence 0.93, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 40% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 35%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 62%, Al-Ittihad FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.