Al Khaleej Saihat 3-1 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Abha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Al Khaleej Saihat welcome Abha to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 31 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Khaleej Saihat — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Abha stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Abha have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Khaleej Saihat at 1.20 PPG versus Abha's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Khaleej Saihat, 1 for Abha and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Abha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Abha in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 31% versus Abha 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 45% | Abha 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.53 xG and Abha 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.903 / defence 1.207 | Abha attack 0.658 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.309. Abha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Al Khaleej Saihat's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 59 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 48% | Draw 26% | Abha 26%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Abha 3.85. Al Khaleej Saihat hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Khaleej Saihat 50% | Abha 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 48% | Draw 26% | Abha 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.53 / Abha 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.903 / def 1.207 | Abha attack 0.658 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Abha xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Abha kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Abha kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 31 May 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Abha?
Al Khaleej Saihat 3 - 1 Abha.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Abha part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Abha is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 48% chance of winning, Abha a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Abha?
Record (1 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 0W | Draws 0 | Abha 1W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Abha in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Abha (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Khaleej Saihat's attack at 0.90x the league average against Abha's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Abha's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
48%
2.07
26%
3.82
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.57
1.04
Abha xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
6%
17.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.2 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.04 for Abha, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Abha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Khaleej Saihat's recent record stands at 8W 4D 17L from 29 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Abha, meanwhile, have gone 10W 3D 16L across 29 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Khaleej Saihat on 0.97 PPG, Abha on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Khaleej Saihat have managed 5W 2D 7L from 14 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Abha's away record stands at 3W 0D 11L across 14 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Abha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Khaleej Saihat come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.10 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Current Season
Abha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Abha in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 8W 4D 17L in their last 29 games (0.97 PPG), while Abha have gone 10W 3D 16L in their last 29 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Abha away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.21 PPG; Abha away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Abha specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
0
Draws
2
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Abha?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, Abha have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2024, when Abha 2-1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 43%, Abha 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 57% (Abha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 36% of games; Abha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 43% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 57% of Abha's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Abha tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Abha in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Khaleej Saihat cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Abha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Abha 3-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.53 xG and Abha 1.04 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.90 / defence 1.21 against Abha attack 0.66 / defence 1.22, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 48% | Draw 26% | Abha 26%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 45%, Abha 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did.
Abha's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 0.97 PPG, Abha 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Khaleej Saihat win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm. Abha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.