Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sports City plays host to Al-Ittihad FC versus Al Taee in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 27 November 2021 at 15:40 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 1L across 6 games at King Abdullah Sports City this term (2.17 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City.
Al Taee (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee away from home this season: 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Al-Ittihad FC's favour (2.30 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ittihad FC — key trading statistics (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Al Taee — key trading statistics (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 46% versus Al Taee 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 46% | Al Taee 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.00 xG and Al Taee 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.262 / defence 1.029 | Al Taee attack 0.616 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 1.144 / away 1.037. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 2.00 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Taee bring a strong defensive rating of 1.386 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Al-Ittihad FC games / 11 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 69% | Draw 20% | Al Taee 11%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.45 | Draw 5.00 | Al Taee 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 33% | Al Taee 17% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 15:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 69% | Draw 20% | Al Taee 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 42% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.00 / Al Taee 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.262 / def 1.029 | Al Taee attack 0.616 / def 1.386 | league avg home 1.144 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Al Taee xG
42%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee kicked off at 15:40 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee?
Al-Ittihad FC 1 - 0 Al Taee.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 69% chance of winning, Al Taee a 11% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taee?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taee in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Al Taee (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.26x the league average against Al Taee's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Taee's attack (0.62x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
69%
1.45
20%
5.07
11%
8.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
3 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.66
0.66
Al Taee xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
8.92
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
36%
2.79
2%
65.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.66 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 7W 2D 2L from 11 games, a 2.09 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taee, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 7L across 11 games — 0.91 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 1.18 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Taee heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Taee's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 0.82 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 7W 2D 2L in their last 11 games (2.09 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 3W 1D 7L in their last 11 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Taee away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.17 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al Taee been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Al Taee in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Al-Ittihad FC go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 0-3 on 7 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Taee — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
0
Draws
1
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al Taee have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2024, when Al Taee 0-3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taee?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Taee see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 17% (Al Taee) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 50% (Al Taee).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al Taee in 83%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 17% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 50% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al Taee 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Taee 1-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.00 xG and Al Taee 0.66 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ittihad FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.26 / defence 1.03 against Al Taee attack 0.62 / defence 1.39, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 69% | Draw 20% | Al Taee 11%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 46%, Al Taee 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Taee's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.