Al-Ittihad FC 0-0 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sports City plays host to Al-Ittihad FC versus Al Taawon in Pro League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Friday 5 April 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ittihad FC's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 6W 1D 3L at King Abdullah Sports City — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Taawon (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Al-Ittihad FC, 1.50 for Al Taawon — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Ittihad FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Al Taawon in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Ittihad FC lead 1W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al-Ittihad FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Al Taawon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 45% versus Al Taawon 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 61% | Al Taawon 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.73 xG and Al Taawon 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.266 / defence 1.019 | Al Taawon attack 1.020 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.522. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — their λ of 1.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 56 Al-Ittihad FC games / 56 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 42% | Draw 23% | Al Taawon 35%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | Al Taawon 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 80% | Al Taawon 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 5 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 42% | Draw 23% | Al Taawon 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.73 / Al Taawon 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.266 / def 1.019 | Al Taawon attack 1.020 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.522 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Al Taawon xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 5 April 2024 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon?
Al-Ittihad FC 0 - 0 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 42% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 1W | Draws 3 | Al Taawon 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.27x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (1.02x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
42%
2.41
23%
4.36
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.31
1.58
Al Taawon xG
2.41
42%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
9%
11.69
6%
15.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.0 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.58 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Al-Ittihad FC have picked up 2.11 PPG on a 36W 10D 10L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon's form line: 29W 14D 13L from 56 games, 1.80 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.11 PPG for Al-Ittihad FC against 1.80 for Al Taawon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 2.25 PPG from 28 outings (20W 3D 5L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 15W 8D 5L from 28 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.64 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 64%.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 36W 10D 10L in their last 56 games (2.11 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 29W 14D 13L in their last 56 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.25 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ittihad FC go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 on 26 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
4
Draws
1
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al Taawon have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Al Taawon 0-2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 43%, Al Taawon 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 46% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al Taawon in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 61% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 46% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Ittihad FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon finished level at 0-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.73 xG and Al Taawon 1.58 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Al Taawon landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.27 / defence 1.02 against Al Taawon attack 1.02 / defence 0.96, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 42% | Draw 23% | Al Taawon 35%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 61%, Al Taawon 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Taawon's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad FC 2.11 PPG, Al Taawon 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.