Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Al-Ittihad FC welcome Al-Nassr to King Abdullah Sports City. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 December 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at King Abdullah Sports City this season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.60 exceeds their overall 2.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.70 vs 2.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Ittihad FC, 2 for Al-Nassr and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2024, ended 2–4 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Al-Nassr trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 59% and Al-Nassr 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ittihad FC 65% | Al-Nassr 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.00 xG and Al-Nassr 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.553 / defence 0.821 | Al-Nassr attack 1.327 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.287. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.553 — their λ of 2.00 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.327 — the away xG of 1.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Al-Ittihad FC games / 46 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 51% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Nassr 3.70. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.40 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 60% | Al-Nassr 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 6 Dec 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 51% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.00 / Al-Nassr 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.553 / def 0.821 | Al-Nassr attack 1.327 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Al-Nassr xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 6 December 2024 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Ittihad FC 2 - 1 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 51% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Nassr 2W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Nassr (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.55x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
51%
1.95
22%
4.61
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.40
1.40
Al-Nassr xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
14%
7.35
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
4%
27.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.40 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Al-Ittihad FC have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 27W 6D 13L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr's form line: 33W 8D 5L from 46 games, 2.33 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ittihad FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 22 outings (14W 2D 6L).
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 18W 2D 2L from 22 away games — 2.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.70 scored and 1.13 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr in 65%.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 27W 6D 13L in their last 46 games (1.89 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 33W 8D 5L in their last 46 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.55 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
4
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al-Nassr have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ittihad FC at 73%, Al-Nassr at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Al-Ittihad FC and 82% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 64% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 82% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al-Nassr 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Nassr 2-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.00 xG and Al-Nassr 1.40 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.55 / defence 0.82 against Al-Nassr attack 1.33 / defence 0.95, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 51% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 27%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 65%, Al-Nassr 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.89. Form was overturned, with Al-Ittihad FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.