Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to King Fahd International Stadium to take on Al-Hilal Saudi FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 October 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record at King Fahd International Stadium: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Fahd International Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.60 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 0 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2022, ended 4–2 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.49 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.281 / defence 0.684 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.048 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.400. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — their λ of 2.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing Al-Hilal Saudi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating of 0.684 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 10 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% | Draw 17% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 13%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (70%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 70% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: King Fahd International Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% | Draw 17% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.49 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.281 / def 0.684 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.048 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
58%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 October 2023 at King Fahd International Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Fahd International Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 70% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 13% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack rating (1.28) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 2.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
70%
1.43
17%
5.91
13%
7.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.49
1.00
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.91
17%
Draw
7.54
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
8%
12.07
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
1%
90.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.00 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 10 games, going 8W 2D 0L for 2.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ahli Jeddah sit at 2.20 PPG from 10 outings (7W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 2.60 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah on 2.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 4W 0D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken 1.50 points per game from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L). That's a step down from their 2.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ahli Jeddah's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking output running into Al-Hilal Saudi FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 60%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 8W 2D 0L in their last 10 games (2.60 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 3.00 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
3
Draws
1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 25%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 75% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 75% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 75% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Ahli Jeddah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 at King Fahd International Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.49 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.00 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.28 / defence 0.68 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.05 / defence 1.27, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% | Draw 17% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 13%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.60 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hilal Saudi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.