Al-Hazm 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 36%, yet in-form Al-Hilal Saudi FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Al-Hilal Saudi FC travel to Ar-Rass Stadium to take on Al-Hazm. The game is scheduled for Thursday 30 September 2021, 18:20 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Hazm — All Games: 2W 2D 2L from 6 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.33 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm at Ar-Rass Stadium this season: 1W 2D 0L from 3 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 3W 2D 0L from 5 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC — 0.87 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.33). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Hazm register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 20% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Hazm 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.56 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 1.101 / defence 1.250 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.953 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.274. Data: 6 Al-Hazm games / 5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 36% | Draw 30% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hazm are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Hilal Saudi FC (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 67% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Sep 2021, 18:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 36% | Draw 30% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 65% | xG Al-Hazm 1.56 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 1.101 / def 1.250 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.953 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 18:20 on Thursday 30 September 2021 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hazm 1 - 1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 36% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 3W-2D-0L in 5 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Hazm's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
36%
2.80
30%
3.28
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
3.08
1.52
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
8%
12.80
7%
14.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.9 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.52 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hazm's recent record stands at 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 0L across 5 games — 2.20 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 60%.
Defensively: Al-Hazm have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 (2.20 PPG).
Have Al-Hazm or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hazm have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-9 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
1
Draws
5
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Al-Hazm 0-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 20%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Al-Hazm) and 60% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 40%; Al-Hazm have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 60% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 60% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.56 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.52 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 1.10 / defence 1.25 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.16, drawn from 6/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 36% | Draw 30% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 20%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.