Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 40%, yet in-form Al-Ahli Jeddah provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah meet at Al-Hazem Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Friday 2 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Hazm's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Al-Ahli Jeddah hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2026, ended 0–2 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Hazm — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 60% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 58% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.37 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.895 / defence 0.971 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.874 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.362. Data: 38 Al-Hazm games / 39 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 40% | Draw 31% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hazm are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ahli Jeddah (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 60% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 2 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 40% | Draw 31% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Hazm 1.37 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.895 / def 0.971 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.874 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 2 April 2027 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 40% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 5W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Hazm's attack at 0.90x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (0.87x) against Al-Hazm's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
40%
2.52
31%
3.26
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.53
1.16
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
13%
7.99
8%
13.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.16 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Hazm's recent record stands at 12W 10D 16L from 38 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 27W 6D 5L across 38 games — 2.29 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 1.08 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Hazm have managed 8W 3D 8L from 19 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 12W 2D 5L across 19 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.13 scored and 0.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 27W 6D 5L in their last 38 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.42 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al-Hazm or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hazm have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 0-4 on 22 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hazm have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
1
Draws
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 58%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al-Hazm) and 42% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 53%; Al-Hazm have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 37% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 42% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.