Al-Fayha 1-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 38% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh encounter.

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Match Analysis

Al-Fayha host Al-Fateh at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 6 April 2025 at 16:25 UK time.

Form Guide

Al-Fayha — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

At home, Al-Fayha have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Fateh stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Al-Fateh's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fayha 1.30 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

Al-Fayha hold a clear advantage across the 7 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Al-Fateh and 4 draws.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2024, ended Al-Fayha 1–1 Al-Fateh — a draw.

The head-to-head data gives Al-Fayha an edge — 3 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading Patterns

Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fayha 51% and Al-Fateh 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 48% | Al-Fateh 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.07 xG and Al-Fateh 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.547 / defence 0.781 | Al-Fateh attack 0.889 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.320. Al-Fayha's attack rating of 0.547 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Al-Fateh's defence rating of 1.321 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Fayha's projected output up. Al-Fayha have a tight defence (rating 0.781), which is pulling Al-Fateh's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Fayha's last 59 games and Al-Fateh's last 59.

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 38% | Draw 31% | Al-Fateh 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.60 | Draw 3.24 | Al-Fateh 3.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 38% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Al-Fayha 3 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fayha 20% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fateh 60% (last 10 away games).

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