Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fayha face Al-Ahli Jeddah.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha. The game is scheduled for Thursday 15 October 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fayha stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Fayha haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 5W 2D 3L at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Al-Fayha's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Al-Fayha.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Al-Ahli Jeddah have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 53% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 53% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.33 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.966 / defence 0.961 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.085 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Data: 34 Al-Fayha games / 34 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 34% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 39%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 60% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 34% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Fayha 1.33 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.966 / def 0.961 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.085 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 15 October 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 34% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 5W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (0.97) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
34%
2.94
27%
3.75
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.78
1.45
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
8%
12.52
10%
9.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.45 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 10W 8D 16L from 34 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. Al-Fayha haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 25W 6D 3L across 34 games — 2.38 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 1.26 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 6W 6D 5L from 17 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 12W 2D 3L across 17 trips, a 2.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.09 scored and 0.74 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Pre-Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 10W 8D 16L in their last 34 games (1.12 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 25W 6D 3L in their last 34 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.41 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 2.24 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 8 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2025, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 53%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Al-Fayha) and 35% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 35% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 35% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.