Al-Fateh 0-1 Al Taee – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al Taee encounter.

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Match Analysis

Al-Fateh host Al Taee at Al Fateh Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 2 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Al-Fateh — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.90 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Taee stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al Taee away from home: 0W 1D 9L from their last 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Al-Fateh are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

Al Taee have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Al-Fateh.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Mar 2023, ended Al-Fateh 2–3 Al Taee — a Al Taee win.

Al Taee have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading Patterns

Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Al Taee in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 57% versus Al Taee 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 64% | Al Taee 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 2.40 xG and Al Taee 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.131 / defence 0.960 | Al Taee attack 0.741 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.496. Al Taee's defence rating of 1.364 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Fateh's projected output up. Al Taee's attack rating of 0.741 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Data: built from Al-Fateh's last 44 games and Al Taee's last 44.

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 66% | Draw 20% | Al Taee 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.52 | Draw 5.05 | Al Taee 7.01. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (66%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.40 / 1.06) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Al Taee have the better head-to-head record in our data (4 wins to 0), but Al-Fateh carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.

Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fateh's last 10 home games and Al Taee's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fateh 70% (last 10 home games) | Al Taee 50% (last 10 away games).

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