Al-Fateh 1-2 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Riyadh at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh meet at Al Fateh Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 12). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 28 November 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Al-Fateh have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Fateh at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Al Riyadh's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, Al Riyadh have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Al Riyadh arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Al-Fateh's last 10 home games and Al Riyadh's last 10 away games) — Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Al Riyadh in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 2 May 2024, ended Al-Fateh 2–2 Al Riyadh — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Al Riyadh half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 73% and Al Riyadh 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 62% | Al Riyadh 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Fateh surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Al Riyadh have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.40 xG and Al Riyadh 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.942 / defence 1.217 | Al Riyadh attack 1.035 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.245. Al-Fateh's defence rating of 1.217 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Riyadh's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Fateh's last 45 games and Al Riyadh's last 45.

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 34% | Draw 24% | Al Riyadh 42%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.93 | Draw 4.11 | Al Riyadh 2.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.40 / 1.57) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Riyadh at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fateh's last 10 home games and Al Riyadh's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fateh 80% (last 10 home games) | Al Riyadh 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights