Al-Ettifaq 0-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Damac at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Damac encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Damac make the trip to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 October 2021 at 15:40 UTC.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 2W 4D 3L across 9 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.11 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1W 2D 0L at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.11 — Al-Ettifaq are significantly better at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Damac have collected 2.00 PPG across 9 Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 1L. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.44 per game is modest, conceding 0.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's away record: 2W 1D 1L from 4 road trips in Pro League this season (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Damac are 0.89 PPG clear of Al-Ettifaq in recent Pro League fixtures (2.00 vs 1.11). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Ettifaq have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Damac in 75%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 56%.
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ettifaq 67% and Damac 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 67% | Damac 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.15 xG and Damac 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.888 / defence 1.103 | Damac attack 1.082 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.141. Data: 9 Al-Ettifaq games / 9 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 30% | Draw 29% | Damac 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Damac 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 67% | Damac 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 15:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 30% | Draw 29% | Damac 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.15 / Damac 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.888 / def 1.103 | Damac attack 1.082 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Damac (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Damac xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Damac kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Damac kicked off at 15:40 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Al-Ettifaq 0 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Damac part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Damac is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 30% chance of winning, Damac a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Damac?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Damac in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 2W-4D-3L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Damac (all comps): 5W-3D-1L in 9 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 0.89 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Damac's attack (1.08x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
30%
3.28
29%
3.47
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.51
1.36
Damac xG
3.28
30%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
8%
12.82
13%
7.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.1 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.36 for Damac, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 2W 4D 3L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac's form line: 5W 3D 1L from 9 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Damac are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ettifaq.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.67 PPG from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Al-Ettifaq are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Damac have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.44 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ettifaq have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Damac in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 4D 3L in their last 9 games (1.11 PPG), while Damac have gone 5W 3D 1L in their last 9 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Damac away?
Damac's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.67 PPG; Damac away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Damac in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ettifaq have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 on 15 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
2
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 6, Damac have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 2-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Damac?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Al-Ettifaq, 67% for Damac — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Ettifaq) and 33% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Damac in 33%; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 67% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 33% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Damac in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Damac edge out Al-Ettifaq 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al-Ettifaq 0-1 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.15 xG and Damac 1.36 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ettifaq fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.89 / defence 1.10 against Damac attack 1.08 / defence 1.14, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 30% | Draw 29% | Damac 41%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 67%, Damac 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Damac's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Damac (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.