Al Baten 1-2 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Raed at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Baten vs Al-Raed encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Raed travel to Al-Batin FC Stadium to take on Al Baten in Pro League (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Monday 26 December 2022 at 11:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Baten stand at 0W 2D 8L — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Al Baten's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Al Baten are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al-Raed — last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Al-Raed's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Raed are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al Baten, 1 for Al-Raed and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 19 Mar 2022, ended Al Baten 2–0 Al-Raed — a Al Baten win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Al Baten in-play tendencies (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 51% of games.
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Baten 41% versus Al-Raed 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Baten 51% | Al-Raed 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Baten 1.18 xG and Al-Raed 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Baten attack 0.963 / defence 1.432 | Al-Raed attack 0.933 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.137. Al Baten's defence rating of 1.432 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Raed's projected output up. Data: built from Al Baten's last 39 games and Al-Raed's last 39.
Result probabilities: Al Baten 30% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 45%. Fair-value odds: Al Baten 3.38 | Draw 3.94 | Al-Raed 2.22. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Raed as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Baten's last 10 home games and Al-Raed's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Baten 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Raed 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Baten vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, matchday 10 | Venue: Al-Batin FC Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 26 December 2022 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Baten 30% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Al Baten 1.18 / Al-Raed 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Al Baten attack 0.963 / def 1.432 | Al-Raed attack 0.933 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Al Baten xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Al-Raed xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Baten vs Al-Raed FAQs
What time does Al Baten vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al Baten vs Al-Raed kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Monday 26 December 2022 at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Baten vs Al-Raed?
Al Baten 1 - 2 Al-Raed.
Where is Al Baten vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What competition is Al Baten vs Al-Raed part of?
Al Baten vs Al-Raed is a Pro League fixture (matchday 10) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Baten vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al Baten a 30% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Baten vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al Baten and Al-Raed will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Baten vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Baten's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Al-Raed's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al Baten's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Baten's last 39 games and Al-Raed's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
30%
3.38
25%
3.94
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Al Baten xG
Total xG
2.70
1.52
Al-Raed xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
6%
15.44
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Baten vs Al-Raed Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Baten vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al Baten and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Al Baten and 1.52 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Baten vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Baten come into this having played 39 games, going 8W 10D 21L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Al-Raed sit at 1.15 PPG from 39 outings (13W 6D 20L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Baten on 0.87 PPG, Al-Raed on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Baten's home form reads 6W 6D 7L across their last 19 home games, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Raed have taken 0.84 points per game from their last 19 away games (4W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Baten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Baten are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.08 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Baten
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
Al Baten (Home) vs Al-Raed (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Baten
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Al Baten vs Al-Raed Form FAQs
What form are Al Baten and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al Baten have gone 8W 10D 21L in their last 39 games (0.87 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 13W 6D 20L in their last 39 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Baten at home or Al-Raed away?
Al Baten's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Baten at home: 1.26 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 2 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Raed have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Al Baten's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Baten
0
Draws
3
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Baten vs Al-Raed H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Raed?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Baten have won 1, Al-Raed have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Baten and Al-Raed last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2023: Al-Raed 3-1 Al Baten.
Who has won more matches between Al Baten and Al-Raed?
Al-Raed have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Baten 47%, Al-Raed 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Al Baten and 63% for Al-Raed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Baten keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al Baten have failed to score in 37% of games; Al-Raed in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Baten home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Baten vs Al-Raed Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Baten and Al-Raed matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Al Baten's recent matches and 53% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Baten and Al-Raed matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Al Baten's matches and 63% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al Baten and Al-Raed matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Al Baten's recent matches and 79% of Al-Raed's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Raed edge out Al Baten 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al Baten 1-2 at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Baten 1.18 xG and Al-Raed 1.52 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Baten attack 0.96 / defence 1.43 against Al-Raed attack 0.93 / defence 0.99, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Baten 30% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 45%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Baten 51%, Al-Raed 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Baten's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Raed's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Baten 0.87 PPG, Al-Raed 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Raed win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Raed (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.