Al Baten 2-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Baten at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Baten face Al-Ahli Jeddah.

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Fixture Analysis

Al Baten welcome Al-Ahli Jeddah to Al-Batin FC Stadium in Pro League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Thursday 5 May 2022 at 19:50 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Baten stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Al Baten's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Across their last 10 games, Al-Ahli Jeddah have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Al Baten) versus 1.30 (Al-Ahli Jeddah). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Al Baten have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2021, ended Al Baten 0–1 Al-Ahli Jeddah — a Al-Ahli Jeddah win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Al Baten in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Baten 40% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Baten 40% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 36%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Baten surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Al-Ahli Jeddah have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Baten 1.42 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Baten attack 0.973 / defence 1.161 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.806 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.133. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 1.257 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Baten's projected output up. Data: built from Al Baten's last 25 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 25.

Result probabilities: Al Baten 45% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 28%. Fair-value odds: Al Baten 2.21 | Draw 3.77 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.56. Al Baten hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Baten are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Baten offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Baten 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% (last 10 away games).

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