Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taee fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Al-Ahli Jeddah welcome Al Taee to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 March 2022 at 16:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taee stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ahli Jeddah at 1.00 PPG versus Al Taee's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, Al Taee 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play and half-time data (23 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Al Taee in-play and half-time data (23 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 61% versus Al Taee 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% | Al Taee 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.62 xG and Al Taee 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.071 / defence 1.361 | Al Taee attack 0.574 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.152. Al Taee bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 23 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 54% | Draw 25% | Al Taee 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Al Taee 4.76. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 70% | Al Taee 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 54% | Draw 25% | Al Taee 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.62 / Al Taee 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.071 / def 1.361 | Al Taee attack 0.574 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.180 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Al Taee xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taee kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taee kicked off at 16:45 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taee?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3 - 1 Al Taee.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taee part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 54% chance of winning, Al Taee a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taee?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W | Draws 0 | Al Taee 0W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taee in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Al Taee (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack at 1.07x the league average against Al Taee's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taee's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
54%
1.84
25%
4.04
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.53
0.90
Al Taee xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
4%
24.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.90 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ahli Jeddah come into this having played 23 games, going 5W 10D 8L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Taee sit at 1.13 PPG from 23 outings (8W 2D 13L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ahli Jeddah on 1.09 PPG, Al Taee on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home form reads 3W 6D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Taee have taken 0.83 points per game from 12 outings (3W 1D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 0.96 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ahli Jeddah have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 5W 10D 8L in their last 23 games (1.09 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 8W 2D 13L in their last 23 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al Taee away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 1.25 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taee runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2024, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al Taee specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Al-Ahli Jeddah
0
Draws
0
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taee?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 4, Al Taee have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Al Taee 1-4 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taee?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al Taee see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 75%, Al Taee 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 33% for Al Taee.
On the defensive side: Al Taee in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 17% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 33% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Taee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Taee 3-1 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.62 xG and Al Taee 0.90 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.07 / defence 1.36 against Al Taee attack 0.57 / defence 1.28, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 54% | Draw 25% | Al Taee 21%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 30%, Al Taee 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (23 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taee's trading profile (23 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.09 PPG, Al Taee 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ahli Jeddah win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Al Taee (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.