Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-4 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah host Al-Ittihad FC at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 6W 2D 1L from 9 away fixtures this term (2.22 PPG). They are averaging 1.89 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.22 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ittihad FC are 1.80 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ahli Jeddah register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 1 for Al-Ittihad FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% versus Al-Ittihad FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.09 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.952 / defence 1.160 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.224 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.183. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.224 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 21 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 20 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 24% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 50%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.00. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 70% | Al-Ittihad FC 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 24% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.09 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.952 / def 1.160 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.224 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.163 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Al-Ittihad FC xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3 - 4 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 24% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad FC 1W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
24%
4.23
26%
3.79
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.78
1.68
Al-Ittihad FC xG
4.23
24%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
4%
22.70
17%
5.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.68 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 5W 9D 6L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 15W 3D 2L from 20 games, 2.40 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 1.44 PPG from 9 outings (3W 4D 2L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 6W 2D 1L from 9 away games — 2.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.10 scored and 0.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ahli Jeddah have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 5W 9D 6L in their last 20 games (1.20 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 15W 3D 2L in their last 20 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 1.44 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.22 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1
Draws
3
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 4, Al-Ittihad FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ahli Jeddah at 67%, Al-Ittihad FC at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 56% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 67% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 56% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-4 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.09 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.68 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.68 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.95 / defence 1.16 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.22 / defence 0.99, drawn from 21/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 24% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 50%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 30%, Al-Ittihad FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.