Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Al-Ettifaq travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ahli Jeddah. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 28 January 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 6W 3D 1L at King Abdullah Sports City — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.10 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at King Abdullah Sports City this season.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 2.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 2 for Al-Ettifaq and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% versus Al-Ettifaq 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% | Al-Ettifaq 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.89 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.307 / defence 0.814 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.154 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.443. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 51 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ettifaq 3.70. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 80% | Al-Ettifaq 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.89 / Al-Ettifaq 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.307 / def 0.814 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.154 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Al-Ettifaq xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 28 January 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 4 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 49% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W | Draws 3 | Al-Ettifaq 2W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.31) and Al-Ettifaq's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
49%
2.03
24%
4.14
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.25
1.36
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
15%
6.63
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
4%
24.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.0 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.36 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 2.10 PPG on a 33W 8D 10L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 22W 13D 16L from 51 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ettifaq.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.16 PPG from 25 outings (16W 6D 3L).
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 13W 7D 5L from 25 away games — 1.84 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.39 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ettifaq in 61%.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 33W 8D 10L in their last 51 games (2.10 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 22W 13D 16L in their last 51 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.16 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2021, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ahli Jeddah at 68%, Al-Ettifaq at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 56% for Al-Ettifaq. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 72% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 56% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Ettifaq 4-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.89 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.36 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.31 / defence 0.81 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.15 / defence 0.96, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 27%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 49%, Al-Ettifaq 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.55. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.